USDA: WHEAT PROJECTIONS FOR 2009/10

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected  36 million bushels higher this month as higher forecast  production more than offsets an increase in projected use and  lower imports.  Wheat production is forecast 71 million bushels  higher with increases in all classes of wheat except soft red  winter.  The largest increases are for hard red spring wheat and  durum reflecting sharply higher expected yields in the Northern  Plains.  Feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels with  the larger crop.  Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher  with reduced production prospects in Canada and Argentina,  which are major competitors in the western hemisphere wheat  market.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is  projected at $4.70 to $5.70 per bushel, down 10 cents on both  ends of the range.  Small revisions are also made this month to  2007/08 and 2008/09 imports, exports, and food use based on  the latest trade and mill grind data from the U.S. Bureau of  Census.  Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 5.0 million tons  higher with higher beginning stocks and increased prospects  for global production.  World wheat production is raised 2.8  million tons for 2009/10 with major increases for India, United  States, EU-27, China, and Ukraine partly offset by reductions  for Russia, Argentina, Canada, and Kazakhstan.  India  production is raised 3.0 million tons to a record 80.6 million  based on the latest revision to the official government estimate.   EU-27 production is raised 1.6 million tons mostly on higher  reported yields for Germany, but also on better-than-expected  yields for France and rising prospects for harvested area and  yields for Poland.  Partly offsetting are cuts for Spain, Romania,  Bulgaria, and Austria where persistent dryness reduced yields.   China production is raised 1.0 million tons reflecting the first  official indications for the harvested summer crops.  Ukraine  production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher winter wheat  area and harvest reports.    Production forecasts for 2009/10 are lowered for several major  wheat exporting countries.  Production for Russia is lowered  4.5 million tons as dryness and extended heat during July  sharply reduced yields in the Southern and Volga Districts.   Kazakhstan production is lowered 0.5 million tons as western  growing areas suffered under weather conditions similar to  those in Russia.  Argentina production is lowered 1.0 million  tons as continued dryness in the central and western growing  areas limited plantings.  Production is also lowered 1.0 million  tons for Canada as July rains came too late in some areas of  Alberta and Saskatchewan and crop development remains  delayed raising the potential for late season frost damage.  Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are projected  slightly lower.  Small import reductions are projected for  Afghanistan, Brazil, Egypt, Japan, and Azerbaijan.  Partly  offsetting is an increase for Sudan.  Larger country changes  are forecast for exports, but they are mostly offsetting, leaving  global exports down just 0.6 million tons.  Exports are lowered  2.0 million tons for Russia, 1.8 million tons for India, 1.0 million  tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million for Kazakhstan. Exports are  raised 2.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine and  combine with higher expected U.S. exports to limit the decline  in global trade.  Global consumption is raised 2.7 million tons  as a 4.4-million-ton increase in India food use is only partly  offset by reductions in food use by Ukraine and Canada, and  lower wheat feeding in EU-27 and Canada.  Global ending  stocks for 2009/10 are projected 2.3 million tons higher boosted  in part by the rise in 2008/09 carryout.