USDA: LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY PROJECTIONS FOR 2009/10

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. red meat and  poultry production for 2009 is reduced as lower beef and  poultry output more than offset higher pork production.  The  July 1 Cattle report, which was released on July 24 indicated  lower cow numbers, a smaller calf crop, fewer cattle on feed,  and fewer cattle outside feedlots than last year, all implying  smaller feedlot placements through the balance of 2009 and  into 2010.  This also implies lower feedlot marketings and cattle  slaughter and hence lower beef production than forecast last  month.  Partly offsetting the lower beef production is higher  forecast pork production due to larger expected slaughter and  higher carcass weights in the third quarter of 2009.  Poultry  production is forecast slightly lower as fractionally higher  second quarter broiler production is more than offset by weaker  turkey production. Egg production for 2009 is reduced slightly.   Changes in the meat production forecast for 2010 reflect tighter  supplies of fed cattle due to smaller cattle feedlot placements  and lower cow slaughter.  There are no changes to forecast  pork and poultry production for 2010 as lower feed prices  provide some support to producers.  Egg production forecasts  are unchanged from last month.  Export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced largely  because of lower expected beef shipments.  Weak economic  growth in 2009 and tighter beef supplies for both 2009 and  2010 are expected to result in lower exports.  Broiler exports  are raised slightly but turkey export forecasts are reduced.   Pork forecasts are unchanged.  Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are lowered for  2009.  Weak demand is pressuring prices.  Egg prices are  forecast slightly higher.  Prices for hogs and broilers are  lowered for 2010, but cattle prices are raised as tighter fed  cattle supplies support prices.  Egg and turkey price forecasts  are unchanged for 2010.    The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as the  reduction in cow numbers is slower than expected and growth  in output per cow is higher.  Fat and skim-solids basis imports  are raised as cheese imports have been stronger than  expected; the commercial export forecast for 2009 is adjusted  as higher exports in the first half are offset by lower second half  exports.  Exports for 2010 are lowered as higher domestic  prices and larger exportable supplies in competitor countries  limit export opportunities into 2010. CCC removals are adjusted  to reflect changes in support prices for cheese and nonfat dry  milk (NDM).  Cheese and NDM price forecasts are raised for  2009 as higher support prices and increased net removals  support domestic prices.  Forecast cheese and NDM prices for  2010 are lowered as higher forecast production and weaker  commercial exports increase domestic supplies.  Butter and  whey price forecasts are unchanged from last month.  Both  Class III and Class IV prices are forecast higher for 2009  reflecting higher forecast prices for cheese (Class III) and NDM  (Class IV).  Class price forecasts for 2010 are reduced as  cheese and NDM prices are lowered.  The all milk price is  forecast at $12.10 to $12.30 per cwt for 2009 and $14.65 to  $15.65 for 2010.