USDA: RICE PROJECTIONS FOR 2009/10

RICE:  USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2009/10 U.S.  rice crop is 211.2 million cwt, up slightly from last month's  projection, and up 7.4 million from 2008/09.  Average yield is  forecast at 7,039 pounds per acre, up 6 pounds per acre from  last month, and an increase of 193 pounds per acre from last  year.  Area harvested at 3.0 million acres is unchanged from a  month ago.  Long-grain production is forecast at 150.4 million  cwt, down 0.6 million from last month, while combined medium-  and short-grain production is forecast at 60.8 million cwt, up 0.8  million from a month ago.   All rice 2009/10 domestic and residual use and exports are  unchanged from last month. However, combined medium- and  short-grain exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 28.0 million,  while long-grain exports are lowered the same amount to 71.0  million.  The rough rice export projection is raised 1.0 million  cwt to 35 million, while exports of milled and brown rice (on a  rough-equivalent basis) are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 64  million.  Ending stocks are projected at 23.9 million cwt, 1.2  million above last month and 5 percent above a year earlier.  The season-average farm price range for all rice in 2009/10 is  raised $0.40 per cwt on each end to $13.65 to $14.65 per cwt,  compared to a revised $16.25 per cwt for 2008/09.  The higher  U.S. price forecast is due to a larger share of U.S. marketings  of higher-priced medium-grain rice and an expected firming of  global prices due to tighter world supplies.  The long-grain  season-average farm price range for 2009/10 is projected at  $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt compared to a revised $14.90 per cwt  in 2008/09.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price  range is projected at $19.50 to $20.50 per cwt, compared to a  revised $21.30 per cwt in 2008/09.  Projected global 2009/10 production, consumption, and ending  stocks are lowered from a month ago, while trade is nearly  unchanged.  World 2009/10 rice production is projected at  433.5 million tons, 15.5 million tons below last month, 11.4  million below the record 2008/09 estimate, and nearly the same  as 2007/08.  This month's lower crop forecast is primarily due  to the effects of a below-normal monsoon on India.  India’s  2009/10 crop is projected at 84.0 million tons, 15.5 million or 16  percent below last month, 15 percent below 2008/09, and the  lowest crop since 2004/05.  Other notable revisions in 2009/10  production included an increase for Cambodia which is nearly  offset by a decrease for Brazil.  World consumption is lowered  5.3 million tons mostly due to decreases for India, Thailand,  Burma, and Cambodia. Global 2009/10 ending stocks are  projected at 84.0 million tons, down 10.5 million from last  month, and down 4.7 million from revised 2008/09.