USDA: COARSE GRAINS PROJECTIONS FOR 2009/10

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are  projected higher this month with sharply higher forecast corn  production more than offsetting a reduction in carryin as  2008/09 corn exports are raised 50 million bushels.  Corn  production for 2009/10 is projected at 12.8 billion bushels, up  471 million as higher forecast yields more than offset a small  reduction in harvested area as updated from the June 30  Acreage report.  U.S. corn supplies are projected at a record  14.5 billion bushels, up 134 million from the previous record in  2007/08.    Corn use for 2009/10 is projected higher with rising supplies  and lower expected prices.  Despite reduced prospects for  livestock production, feed and residual use is raised 100 million  bushels with the higher yield and production expected to add to  residual loss.  Food, seed, and industrial use is raised 100  million bushels with higher expected use for ethanol supported  by favorable ethanol producer returns and strong incentives for  ethanol blending.  Exports are projected 150 million bushels  higher reflecting reduced foreign production prospects and  stronger expected import demand from Mexico and Taiwan.   Ending stocks are projected up 71 million bushels with higher  expected use partly offsetting the increase in production.  The  2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at  $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the  range.  The marketing-year average reflects higher prices for  corn sold for forward delivery over the past several months  ahead of the sharp downturn in futures and cash market prices  since early June.       Other feed grain changes include slightly higher 2009/10  production forecasts for sorghum, barley, and oats, as well as  minor revisions to 2007/08 and 2008/09 imports and exports  based on the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Census.  Oats  imports are projected 15 million bushels lower with reduced  crop prospects in Canada.  As a result, projected feed and  residual use for oats is lowered 10 million bushels.  Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 8.3  million tons higher this month.  Rising production prospects for  U.S. corn, Ukraine barley, India sorghum, and EU-27 rye and  mixed grains are partly offset by reductions in expected coarse  grain output elsewhere.  Corn production prospects are  reduced for Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, and EU-27.   Barley production is lowered for Turkey, Canada, and EU-27.   World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected  higher for 2009/10 mostly reflecting higher expected corn  exports, up 2.6 million tons this month.  Corn imports are raised  1.5 million tons for Mexico and 0.3 million tons for Taiwan.  The  3.8-million-ton increase for U.S. corn exports is partly offset by  a 0.5-million-ton reduction each for South Africa and Ukraine,  and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Russia.  Barley exports are  raised 0.4 million tons with a 1.5-million-ton increase for  Ukraine, partly offset by smaller reductions for Australia,  Canada, EU-27, and Kazakhstan.  Oats exports are cut 0.2  million tons with a reduction in Canada.  Global coarse grain  feeding is raised 1.7 million tons as increased U.S. corn feed  and residual use and higher barley feeding in Australia is partly  offset by reduced corn feeding in Russia and reduced barley  and oats feeding in Canada.  Global coarse grain ending stocks  are projected higher, mostly reflecting a 2.3-million-ton increase  in corn stocks.