USDA: OILSEEDS PROJECTIONS FOR 2009/10

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at  94.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month as lower  soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by  higher peanut production.  Soybean yields are forecast at 41.7  bushels per acre, 0.9 bushels below last month=s trend yield  projection, but 2.1 bushels above last year=s yield.  The first  survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is 3.2 billion  bushels, 61 million below the July projection, but 240 million  bushels above last year=s crop.  Soybean stocks are projected  at 210 million bushels, down 40 million from July as reduced  supplies are only partly offset by reduced crush and exports.   Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.67 billion due  to lower soybean meal exports.  Soybean exports are reduced  10 million bushels to 1.265 billion.  Lower U.S. soybean and  soybean meal exports are offset by increased shipments from  Argentina.  Soybean and product prices are all increased this month.  The  U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/10 is projected at  $8.40 to $10.40, up 10 cents on both ends of the range.   Soybean meal prices are projected at $260 to $320 per short  ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices  are projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, up one cent on both  ends of the range.  Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.6  million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month, but still  record high.  Soybean production for China is reduced 0.2  million tons to 15.4 million due to lower yield resulting from  excessive moisture in the northeast.  Offsetting increases are  projected for soybean production in EU-27 and Ukraine.  EU-27  rapeseed production is projected at a record 19.5 million tons,  up 1.2 million due to better-than-expected yields reported  during harvest, especially in Germany and Poland.  Other  changes include higher sunflowerseed production in EU-27,  lower peanut production for India, and a small reduction in  cottonseed production for Brazil.  U.S. changes for 2008/09 include increased soybean crush and  exports and an offsetting reduction in residual, leaving  projected ending stocks unchanged at 110 million bushels.   Crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.66 billion reflecting a  small increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance.   Soybean exports are increased 5 million bushels to a record  1.265 billion.